(Intelligence Estimate prepared as part of International Relations & Foreign Affairs course at Post Graduate Programme of Takshashila Institution)

Executive Summary

India must continue to closely monitor developments in the middle east to protect its economic and energy interests. With no direct defence security threat, continuing the existing strategy of not publicly opposing Israel and avoiding any direct military involvement in the Red Sea will work in the near term. Middle east region and trade via Red Sea & Gulf of Suez are of significant strategic interest to India and every development must be closely monitored and India’s response frequently reviewed. 

Triggers

• War between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas continues with no ceasefire in sight
• Yemen’s Houthi movement is carrying out attacks, targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea
• Iran has carried out a missile and drone attack on western Pakistan

The Security Problem

• Attack by Iran on Pakistan along with existing aggression in Red Sea and Gaza may escalate into a regional crisis in India’s neighbourhood.  
• Attacks on ships in the Red Sea can affect India’s foreign trade and global supply chain. This has direct bearing on India’s energy and economic interests
• Possibilities of future attack on India flagged ships / ships with Indians on board
• Continued tension in middle east and any possible escalation will adversely impact Indian diaspora of over 8 million residing in the region

Background and Key Facts

Israel continues to press its offensive aiming to completely eliminate Hamas. Conflict has spread to southern Gaza and continues to shift westwards.

According to Aljazeera, at least 24,448 people killed and 61,504 wounded in Israeli attacks on Gaza since October 7. The revised death toll in Israel from the October 7 Hamas attack stands at 1,139.

Attack by Houthi fighters on commercial vessels in the red sea and retaliatory US strikes have ratcheted up tensions and affects about 15% of the worlds shipping traffic.

Houthis control most parts of Yemen and are backed by Iran. Houthis claim these attacks are in solidarity with people of Palestine and are meant to pressurise Tel Aviv to end its war on Gaza.

US has designated Houthis as “specially designated global terrorists”. US has formed a 10-nation force to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Participating nations, including Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Seychelles, and the UK. US and UK have also initiated military operations in the region.

Iran had carried our airstrike in Pakistan claiming to attack the bases of Jaish al-Adl armed group. Pakistan has retaliated with an attack supposedly targeted on terrorists.

Key Considerations and Implications

The escalations do not have any direct defence security related implications for India. However, this situation poses grave economic concerns with respect to energy, trade etc. Along with this, i) India’s position as a emerging power of the global south; ii) bilateral relations with specific countries and iii) long established image as proponent of non violence and non alignment are at stake.

Given the possible economic impact, India cannot be a silent spectator. Further, not reacting appropriately to such large-scale conflicts does not dwell well with our ambitions to emerge as global power.

Regarding the Israel Palestine conflict, Israel is a strong strategic partner of India being one of the largest defence supplier. On the other hand, India has been one of the first countries to recognise Palestine and has provided financial aid in the past.

Israel is backed by US and pro Palestine groups are supported by the Arab countries. US is a friendly nation and India wants to improve its relationship with US expanding cooperation to multiple fields. Support of US is needed as a countermeasure to increasing Chinese influence in the subcontinent. India is reliant on Arab world for its energy needs. We have a significant Indian Diaspora there. India also has significant trade relations with Arab countries and any disturbances can affect forex inflow and trade balance.

US and Israel are in conflict with Houthis in Yemen. Houthis are backed by Iran. Iran is an important strategic partner for India and has supported India even in face of global sanctions previously. India also has to align with Iran in the Iran Pakistan conflict. However, supporting Houthis indirectly by supporting Iran can affect India’s external trade and import. There were stray instances of violence spreading over to Indian Ocean and any possible escalation poses a significant maritime threat.

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is reaching alarming levels and it is a moral imperative on India to stand with the civilian victims.

Given the conflicting nature of India’s interests it is important for India to take a considered path weighing all the possible implications long term and short term

Suggested Course of Action

It is in India’s interest to maintain its relationship with Israel. Hence India can take a view that the war by Israel is against terrorism and India is against terrorism of any form. This can justify India’s not publicly condemning Israel while at the same time does not prevent it from supporting Palestine with humanitarian assistance.

Regarding the Red Sea conflict, India can stay away from any direct military action thereby not alienating Iran directly. At the same time India must protect its maritime safety and can declare that it will strongly retaliate any attack on commercial vessels in the Indian Ocean region. India has already stationed 2 warships in the Arabian sea. India must also enter into back-channel talks with Israel to ensure there is no attack on vessels connected with India.

Regarding the Iran Pakistan situation India must take a wait and watch approach. Conflicts along Iran Pakistan border has long history and will not have any direct immediate impact on India.

Sensitivities

India has to reconsider its position if

• The scale of humanitarian crisis in Palestine escalates or if there is rise in civilian causalities compared to Hamas targets. This is important because such situations will lead to reaction by the UN and India will have to vote in UN resolutions are at least take a open global stance on the issue. This must be decided based on further considerations including which country is proposing the resolution etc.
• If the Red sea attack targets any India bound / India flagged vessel, India has to step in to protect itself.
• India will also have to take a larger role if the multiple conflicts emerge into a wider regional crisis.